Thinking · Probabilistic thinking
10 min · pencil
★★☆
How sure are you?
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Mark how sure you are that each sentence is true. 0% means sure it is false. 100% means sure it is true.
- Mark a dot on each line.
- Check the answers with a grown-up.
- Were you most sure when you were right?
The sun is a star.
A spider has 8 legs.
Penguins live at the North Pole.
Bats are blind.
Lightning never hits the same place twice.
Octopuses have three hearts.
A goldfish forgets things after 3 seconds.
Your heart beats about 100,000 times a day.
Grown-up corner
Why it matters: Saying “how sure” instead of just yes or no is how forecasters and doctors think.
- Which answer surprised you most?
- Is it OK to say 50% when you really don’t know?
Extend it: Before the next weather report, guess the chance of rain together.
My brain felt: ☐ easy ☐ just right ☐ stretchy
One thing I learned: ________________________
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